Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 22.299094 24.277875 26.422228 28.930897 31.800958 35.000820 38.864735
2025-10-05 19.191589 21.883870 25.010222 28.957054 33.877467 39.908141 48.019709
2025-10-12 17.087848 20.183484 23.976568 29.069797 35.899516 45.010130 58.590412
2025-10-19 15.653640 19.025418 23.344028 29.456500 38.201185 50.823397 71.650033
2025-10-26 14.354727 17.839983 22.463125 29.293103 39.611539 55.573076 84.517824
2025-11-02 13.273173 16.800563 21.617759 28.998449 40.693510 59.958922 98.202928
2025-11-09 12.450607 16.018165 21.019293 28.942124 42.072651 65.070326 115.169086
2025-11-16 11.708621 15.272598 20.381470 28.713488 43.085167 69.717216 133.200170
2025-11-23 11.061425 14.603890 19.783106 28.453101 43.966380 74.289788 153.351438
2025-11-30 10.495065 14.006594 19.232495 28.191391 44.778209 78.900956 176.283096
2025-12-07 10.029052 13.522622 18.810720 28.087738 45.852159 84.345813 205.362999
2025-12-14 9.575178 13.024965 18.323933 27.809640 46.527443 89.063548 235.897730
2025-12-21 9.421186 12.983776 18.576893 28.899530 50.235655 102.551638 314.565383
2025-12-28 9.023512 12.536974 18.128893 28.651259 51.064063 108.898340 372.211603
2026-01-04 8.702432 12.192015 17.824903 28.641087 52.427648 117.333244 456.141351
2026-01-11 8.464091 11.964608 17.701920 28.964959 54.630928 129.313982 592.071186
2026-01-18 8.162697 11.616970 17.344550 28.781543 55.580217 137.720708 730.108576
2026-01-25 7.866832 11.262679 16.951282 28.483851 56.194976 145.332309 894.749058
2026-02-01 7.627977 10.990637 16.686091 28.424343 57.423640 155.957589 1159.267376
2026-02-08 7.382132 10.694648 16.358547 28.199584 58.175392 165.202224 1486.517033
2026-02-15 7.148585 10.408569 16.031697 27.945037 58.807282 174.429155 1933.163813
2026-02-22 6.929849 10.138004 15.717702 27.689684 59.400314 183.988605 2575.739785
2026-03-01 6.744487 9.916624 15.482552 27.588525 60.438138 196.554011 3725.229163